2023 Presidential Election: Nationwide poll puts Obi ahead Tinubu, Atiku

Ahead of Nigeria’s forthcoming 2023 Presidential Election, a recent nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation has put the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, ahead of the other competitors.

The poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited and concluded in early September 2022, put LP’s Obi ahead of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) standard bearer, Atiku Abubakar.

Described as ‘A 3-Horse Presidential Race + A Lone Outsider’, the poll revealed a substantially close race between Obi, Tinubu and Abubakar. Trailing the pack is Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), tagged a “dark horse” in the race. All other contestants polled results described as statistically insignificant.

A statement issued by the President & Founder, Anap Foundation, Mr. Atedo Peterside, on Thursday, to announce the result of the poll stated that Obi had a significant lead with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today.

In the same vein, 13%, each, proposed to vote for Tinubu and Abubakar, respectively, while Kwankwaso came a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.

The statement read in part: “Mr. Peter Obi’s 8 percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21%, 13% and 13%, respectively.   

“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32% and 15% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39% of women are undecided versus 27% of male voters.

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“The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the zones – 99% in the North East, 90% in the South-South, the North Central and the North West respectively. The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South East with 88% and the South West with 85%.

“When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the Presidency, data gathered showed that 99% of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98% were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95% were aware of Mr. Peter Obi of LP and 74% were aware of Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55% in terms of name recognition.

“Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: – The need to tackle insecurity (45%), the Economy (20%), Education (9%), Unemployment (7%) and Poverty alleviation (4%).”

According to the statement, 46% of the respondents would love to see their preferred presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of Security, Economy, Education, Job Creation, Healthcare and Agriculture, amongst others.

“It is worthy of note that 69% of those aged 18-25, 76% of those aged 26-35, 77% of those aged 36-45, 87% of those aged 46-60 and 89% of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years. On average, the Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections. Furthermore, Mr. Peter Obi led the pack in virtually all the age categories i.e., his leadership was not confined to the youths only.   

“While these Poll results show some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.

“In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only,” the statement concluded.

Below is result of the poll conducted by NOI.